陳真
發佈日期: 2020.04.22
發佈時間:
上午 1:32
如果《以色列時報》及ABC News的報導屬實，那麼，美國跑來中國放毒的嫌疑就更高了，除非CIA有預知未來的特異功能。當然，CIA預先知情不代表就是美國自己幹的。但是，從這些報導中的諸多細節，包括時間、地點、機構、人物及情報流向等等等鉅細靡遺看來，可信度非常高。如果人們還是硬要否認這個可能性，那你其實只是在自欺欺人。
我有四十年的政治經驗，這些經驗告訴我：政治的黑暗與複雜，往往遠超過我們的想像。
等我有空、有心情再簡單翻譯一下這些報導。
陳真
2020. 04.22.
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美國11月就警告以色列與北約 中國爆發「冠狀病毒」流行病
EtToday 新聞
2020年04月18日
武漢衛生部門報告首例武漢肺炎死亡病例。（圖／達志影像／美聯社）
以色列指出，去年11月美國情報單位就提供中國爆發冠傳病毒的情報。（圖／達志影像／美聯社）
記者林彥臣／綜合報導
新冠肺炎（COVID-19）究竟是否真的起源於中國武漢，中美兩國仍就不斷爭議當中。以色列電視台在16日報導稱，美國情報機構在去年11月就警告，中國爆發冠狀病毒流行病。
根據《以色列時報》（The Times of Israel）引述當地第12頻道新聞報導，美國情報界在去年11月第二周，就發現武漢正在流行這種疾病，並且起草了一份機密文件，在那個階段，還沒有公布關於疾病爆發的訊息，只有中國政府才知道。
該項機密文件還指出，川普政府對於這項消息不感興趣，但是美國還是決定把這項情報提供給兩個重要盟友，也就是以色列與北約，其中尤其是以色列國防軍。
以色列軍事官員在11月下旬，就討論了該病毒在中東地區傳播的可能性，以及對以色列與鄰國的影響。報告還說，情報還傳到了以色列的決策者和衛生部，但是到那邊「什麼也沒做」。
美國國家廣播公司（ABC）報導，美國情報官員在12月由美軍國家醫療情報中心撰寫的報告中，就警告過冠狀病毒的威脅，但目前還不清楚是否與分享給以色列的報告為同一份報告。
以色列為防止新冠病毒擴散邁出的第一步，就在中國領導人習近平就該病毒發表首次公開評論的10天後，於1月30日宣布禁止從中國出發的所有航班。
美聯社15日報導稱，習近平發布的警告，是在中國官員秘密確定他們很可能面臨大流行的7天之後發出的，這可能是中國和其他國家能夠防堵疫情的「寶貴時間」。
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US alerted Israel, NATO to disease outbreak in China in November — TV report
White House was reportedly not interested in the intel, but it was passed onto NATO, IDF; when it reached Israel’s Health Ministry, ‘nothing was done’
By TOI STAFF
The Times of Israel
來源：https://bit.ly/34UmlWM
16 April 2020
US intelligence agencies alerted Israel to the coronavirus outbreak in China already in November, Israeli television reported Thursday.
According to Channel 12 news, the US intelligence community became aware of the emerging disease in Wuhan in the second week of that month and drew up a classified document.
Information on the disease outbreak was not in the public domain at that stage — and was known only apparently to the Chinese government.
US intelligence informed the Trump administration, “which did not deem it of interest,” but the report said the Americans also decided to update two allies with the classified document: NATO and Israel, specifically the IDF.
The network said Israeli military officials later in November discussed the possibility of the spread of the virus to the region and how it would affect Israel and neighboring countries.
The intelligence also reached Israel’s decision makers and the Health Ministry, where “nothing was done,” according to the report.
Last week, ABC News reported that US intelligence officials were warning about the coronavirus in a report prepared in November by the American military’s National Center for Medical Intelligence.
It was unclear if that was the same report that was said to have been shared with Israel.
Colonel Shane Day, the NCMI director, denied last week that any such report existed. “As a matter of practice the National Center for Medical Intelligence does not comment publicly on specific intelligence matters,” he said. “However, in the interest of transparency during this current public health crisis, we can confirm that media reporting about the existence/release of a National Center for Medical Intelligence Coronavirus-related product/assessment in November of 2019 is not correct. No such NCMI product exists.”
In its first major step to prevent the spread of the coronavirus, Israel announced on January 30 it was barring all flights from China, ten days after Chinese leader Xi Jinping issued his first public comments on the virus and the Asian country’s top epidemiologist said for the first time it could be spread from person to person.
An Associated Press report on Wednesday said Xi’s warning came seven days after Chinese officials secretly determined that they were likely facing a pandemic, potentially costing China and other countries valuable time to prepare for the outbreak.
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Intelligence report warned of coronavirus crisis as early as November: Sources
"Analysts concluded it could be a cataclysmic event," a source said.
ABC News
By Josh Margolin and James Gordon Meek
9 April 2020,
來源：https://abcn.ws/34UfjRT
When the White House was first warned of coronavirus
According to an exclusive ABC News investigation the National Center for Medical Intelligence warned the military and White House about the spread of the virus in China as far back as late November.
Editor's Note: This story has been updated to reflect comment from the Pentagon.
As far back as late November, U.S. intelligence officials were warning that a contagion was sweeping through China’s Wuhan region, changing the patterns of life and business and posing a threat to the population, according to four sources briefed on the secret reporting.
Concerns about what is now known to be the novel coronavirus pandemic were detailed in a November intelligence report by the military's National Center for Medical Intelligence (NCMI), according to two officials familiar with the document’s contents.
The report was the result of analysis of wire and computer intercepts, coupled with satellite images. It raised alarms because an out-of-control disease would pose a serious threat to U.S. forces in Asia -- forces that depend on the NCMI’s work. And it paints a picture of an American government that could have ramped up mitigation and containment efforts far earlier to prepare for a crisis poised to come home.
"Analysts concluded it could be a cataclysmic event," one of the sources said of the NCMI’s report. "It was then briefed multiple times to" the Defense Intelligence Agency, the Pentagon’s Joint Staff and the White House. Wednesday night, the Pentagon issued a statement denying the "product/assessment" existed.
MORE: CDC director downplays coronavirus models, says death toll will be 'much lower' than projected
From that warning in November, the sources described repeated briefings through December for policy-makers and decision-makers across the federal government as well as the National Security Council at the White House. All of that culminated with a detailed explanation of the problem that appeared in the President’s Daily Brief of intelligence matters in early January, the sources said. For something to have appeared in the PDB, it would have had to go through weeks of vetting and analysis, according to people who have worked on presidential briefings in both Republican and Democratic administrations.
"The timeline of the intel side of this may be further back than we’re discussing," the source said of preliminary reports from Wuhan. "But this was definitely being briefed beginning at the end of November as something the military needed to take a posture on."
The NCMI report was made available widely to people authorized to access intelligence community alerts. Following the report’s release, other intelligence community bulletins began circulating through confidential channels across the government around Thanksgiving, the sources said. Those analyses said China’s leadership knew the epidemic was out of control even as it kept such crucial information from foreign governments and public health agencies.
"It would be a significant alarm that would have been set off by this," former Deputy Assistant Defense Secretary Mick Mulroy, now an ABC News contributor, said of the NCMI report. "And it would have been something that would be followed up by literally every intelligence-collection agency."
Mulroy, who previously served as a senior official at the CIA, said NCMI does serious work that senior government leaders do not ignore.
"Medical intelligence takes into account all source information -- imagery intelligence, human intelligence, signals intelligence," said Mulroy, who hasn't seen the reporting. "Then there’s analysis by people who know those specific areas. So for something like this to have come out, it has been reviewed by experts in the field. They’re taking together what those pieces of information mean and then looking at the potential for an international health crisis."
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NCMI is a component of the Pentagon's Defense Intelligence Agency. Together, the agencies’ core responsibilities are to ensure U.S. military forces have the information they need to carry out their missions -- both offensively and defensively. It is a critical priority for the Pentagon to keep American service members healthy on deployments.
Asked about the November warning last Sunday on ABC’s "This Week," Defense Secretary Mark Esper told Chief Anchor George Stephanopoulos, "I can't recall, George. But we have many people who watch this closely. We have the premier infectious disease research institute in America, within the United States Army. So, our people who work these issues directly watch this all the time."
Pressing the secretary, Stephanopoulos asked, "So, you would have known if there was briefed to the National Security Council in December, wouldn't you?"
Esper said, "Yes. I'm not aware of that."
ABC News：“Did the Pentagon receive an intelligence assessment on COVID in China last November from the National Center for Medical Intelligence?”
Defense Sec. Mark Esper: “I can’t recall, George, but we have many people that watch this closely.”
The Pentagon did not comment Tuesday, but on Wednesday evening following the publication of this report, the Defense Department provided a statement from Col. R. Shane Day, Director of the NCMI.
"As a matter of practice the National Center for Medical Intelligence does not comment publicly on specific intelligence matters. However, in the interest of transparency during this current public health crisis, we can confirm that media reporting about the existence/release of a National Center for Medical Intelligence Coronavirus-related product/assessment in November of 2019 is not correct. No such NCMI product exists," the statement said.
The White House National Security Council and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence declined to comment.
Critics have charged the Trump administration with being flat-footed and late in its response to a pandemic that, after sweeping through Wuhan and then parts of Europe, has now killed more than 12,000 in the U.S.
For his part, President Donald Trump has alternated between taking credit for early action and claiming that the coronavirus was a surprise to him and everyone else. He has repeatedly touted his Jan. 31 decision to restrict air travel with China, but at the same time, he spent weeks telling the public and top administration officials that there was nothing for Americans to fear.
On Jan. 22, for instance, Trump made his first comments about the virus when asked in a CNBC interview, "Are there worries about a pandemic at this point?" The president responded, "No. Not at all. And we have it totally under control. It’s one person coming in from China, and we have it under control. It’s going to be just fine."
As late as Feb. 19, Trump was offering positive reviews for the way China’s leaders had handled the coronavirus.
"I'm confident that they're trying very hard," Trump told an interviewer from Fox 10 in Phoenix. "They're working it -- they built, they built a hospital in seven days, and now they're building another one. I think it's going to work out fine."
It was not until March 13 when Trump declared a national emergency and mobilized the vast resources of the federal government to help public-health agencies deal with the crisis that was poised to crash on to the homeland.
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If it were true that America’s spy agencies were caught that off guard, one intelligence official told ABC News, "that would be a massive intel failure on the order of 9/11. But it wasn’t. They had the intelligence."
ABC News contributor John Cohen, who used to oversee intelligence operations at the Department of Homeland Security, said even the best information would be of no use if officials do not act on it.
"When responding to a public health crisis or any other serious security threat, it is critical that our leaders react quickly and take steps to address the threat identified in the intelligence reporting," said Cohen, the former acting undersecretary of DHS. "It’s not surprising to me that the intelligence community detected the outbreak; what is surprising and disappointing is that the White House ignored the clear warning signs, failed to follow established pandemic response protocols and were slow to put in place a government-wide effort to respond to this crisis."
ABC News' Katherine Faulders, Luis Martinez and Terrance Smith contributed to this report.
